A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
